The Dam is Breaking

Where will the water go now?

Two very interesting, but obviously long shot, seekers of the Democrat nomination for President have bowed out of the race on the eve of the Super Tuesday primary in 14 States. Both have endorsed Biden.

It may be too late for Biden to sweep up all the votes of those who backed Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, but it’s likely he’ll get a lot of them, although Bloomberg will siphon some off, to be sure.

And that’s the rub. The ongoing presence of two moderates will continue to dilute the vote of both to the benefit of the candidate neither wants nominated: Bernie Sanders. If Biden picks up 9 out of 10 Buttigieg/Klobuchar supporters, he’s within the margin of error in the two biggest states up for grabs on Tuesday, California and Texas. But Bloomberg appears poised to clear the 15% hurdle in both states, ensuring he’s awarded at least some delegates (and, more importantly here, denying them to Biden).

Bloomberg might withdraw after Super Tuesday, as well, depending on his own and Biden’s performance. Assuming 90% of those voters also switched to Biden, the former Vice President would likely run the table in the remaining states but would almost certainly still trail Sanders in delegates by the time they reach Milwaukee in July. 

The result is that Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg may very well end up in a tangle with no one able to claim a majority of delegates. Accordingly, the “Super Delegates” – the cadre of party bigwigs and elected officials whom many Sanders supporters believe stole the 2016 nomination — will have to cobble together an agreeable outcome to keep the party strongly together – if it can be done.

Sanders may finally have to conclude that the presidency is beyond his reach. He may settle for a cabinet position with Biden, but Sanders wants to build a movement, not a bureaucracy.

Bloomberg may realize that the way for him to help get rid of Trump will be to spend another half a billion dollars on anti-Trump independent ads all over the country. And, Biden will surely invite Bloomberg to be an inside advisor on anything and everything, and even take management assignments from time to time.

Klobuchar may well become the VP nominee.

If that arrangement doesn’t trump Trump, we are all screwed and probably deserve to be!


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