I apologize for getting my timing a bit wrong a couple of weeks ago in raising a question about RBG’s possible death right after the election. I had no knowledge of her condition then, but I knew, as did a lot of people, that it was tenuous. This turns out to be better for the election than I imagined.
Most people have strong instinctive feelings about right and wrong. Power—particularly raw political power—apparently seems less significant than fairness.
What has now happened is most likely to influence the Presidential election, in many ways to Trump’s disadvantage. Trump would have been smart to say that, as he was so confidant of his reelection, he would do the right thing and wait until after the election to deal with the Court vacancy. What he did not reckon with was the result that he inadvertently mobilized many of his more moderate opponents.
Instead, he is now ostentatiously flexing what is left of his waning Presidential muscle and insisting on making the appointment before the election and trying to force it through before the year’s end. Already two Republican Senators have announced they will not go along. It is now quite likely that despite all the noise he will not be able to force a vote, because there appear to be several more Republican Senators ready to join the opposition.
Trump’s lack of confidence in his reelection has perversely and surprisingly reenergized many more people than otherwise might have been the case. And any larger turn out absolutely benefits Joe Biden and a decisive, timely election night result.
Yes, some diehard conservatives might have been inspired by the opportunity to try to overturn Roe v Wade – but they will lose even more interest in Trump when the Senate refuses to vote on his nomination!
On balance there are many more young people, as well as people worried about preserving Obamacare and protecting reproductive rights, that Trump’s political mistake will favor even more Biden’s election.
At first glance this new prelection twist briefly seemed to add new risks to the election.
However, the most recent polling strongly suggests that RBG’s early demise has already helped the Biden election.
Thanks, and God bless RBG!